| Talent Identification in Soccer: A Critical Analysis of Contemporary Psychological Research |
By Dr. Ian Lawrence, York St. John University
INTRODUCTION
Elite athletes in all sports have to perform repeatedly under high pressure and at a high level. This possibly is best exemplified by the scrutiny applied to the world of the professional soccer player. It is therefore not surprising that many researchers argue that psychological characteristics often distinguish those successful at the highest standard from their less successful counterparts (Morris, 2000). Early research evidence already has supported an association between psychological characteristics and sports performance (Morgan and Pollock, 1977; Morgan, 1979; May et al., 1985). Further research has since evolved with an emphasis in identifying psychological skills relevant to sport (Meyers et al., 1996). Mahoney et al. (1987) identified potential constructs assessing motivation, confidence, anxiety control, mental preparation, team emphasis and concentration.
For several years, researchers have tried to identify key predictors of talent in many sports. A decade ago, Régnier and colleagues (1993) published a review on talent detection and development in sports with the purpose of providing a better understanding of the process by which one achieves greatness in sports. Until that time, most studies were cross-sectional in nature measuring general characteristics. Literature on talent identification and development largely emerged during the 1990s. Books that contribute substantially to our basic understanding of expertise are “The Road to Excellence: The Acquisition of Expert Performance in the Arts, Sciences, Sports, and Games” by Ericsson (1996) and “Expert Performance in Sports” edited by Starkes and Ericsson (2003). Some years ago, the Journal of Sports Sciences devoted a special issue to talent identification and development in soccer (Williams and Reilly, 2000 a).
Many different methods of talent identification (TI) are in use today. The Southern Hemisphere in particular seems to be interested in the talent identification process (Hoare, 1996; McClymont, 1996). This very well could be because of their nations’ relatively low populations. Although the United Kingdom, with a population of 59 million (Huab and Cornelius, 1997), is significantly larger than Southern Hemisphere countries such as Australia and New Zealand, it still is smaller than large nations such as the United States and China.
If the UK is to remain competitive internationally, the author believes it cannot continue to simply wait for talent to emerge through its national competitive structure. The author postulates that when talent is allowed to emerge through a national competitive structure, those nations with the largest populations will be dominant. If Olympians or elite athletes are “one in a million” these large nations would have others to replace the lost talent. Conversely, smaller nations would not have the base population sufficient to compensate.
FUNCTION OF TALENT IDENTIFICATION SYSTEMS
Talent identification is perceived by many governments as a means to harness a nation’s sporting talent to bring about future success in the international arena (Burns, 1996; Prescott, 1996). Talent identification generally takes the form of the selection of a series of tests that are thought to measure key factor(s) to success in a specified sport (Balyi and Hamilton, 1995). These measures then are applied to as large a population as possible. In this way talent identification systems act as a filter to remove people who have relatively few perceived important characteristic(s), leaving people who should have a relatively strong chance of success in that sport. This enables the governing body of that sport to concentrate much of its resources into the developing these talented few performers.
Talent identification is in vogue in Western sporting communities (Honeybourne et al., 2000) as well as in the Southern Hemisphere (Gibson et al., 1999; Keogh, 1999; Bloomfield, 2003). TI schemes can be used to increase the profile of sports in the community. This could raise interest in those sports, attracting more athletes to that sport. Once attracted to the sport, however, a TI system then can be used to target resources to athletes identified as having potential at the expense of the athletes who are identified as not.
The arguments against TI easily can be recognized. Perhaps the most fundamental argument questions the whole ethos of sport. Is sport something that should be taken so seriously that a TI scheme is necessary or should talent be allowed to emerge naturally through freedom of choice? In the UK, there still exists an ethos of non-interference with sports, more a form of “talent emergence” rather than identification, the philosophy of “if you are good enough you will make it.” In many well-documented cases, British athletes succeed despite the system rather than as a result of it.
TI systems are far more premeditated in their approach to uncovering talent. This may be viewed as unsporting or as a form of social control. It could be perceived that sports people are being “shoe horned” into sports to which they are physically or psychologically unsuited. In fact, research has demonstrated that this has not been the case in Western TI systems to date (Grice, 2003). The sports people merely are advised about their potential for success in certain sports.
A second argument that can be leveled against TI systems is financial. National TI systems require time and money to carry out effectively. This money has to come from somewhere and inevitably will reduce the spending in other areas of a government’s agenda. Within the context of sport, another dilemma is whether funds devoted toward TI should be allocated to the development and support of elite sports people.
Additionally, funds directed toward elite sport may result in less grass-roots investment in sport. This again may reduce the pool of athletes from which future elite performers are drawn. This could damage the likelihood of a nation securing international success in chosen sports, unless the TI program is successful, in which case role models will be available to promote participation. The fiscal argument is not the subject of this article but is deserving of further consideration.
ASSOCIATION FOOTBALL
In Britain, there are about 10,000 registered players in 146 registered Centres of Excellence (Pickering, 1996), representing what is arguably the UK’s largest TI and development program. In the UK, football has a long-established TI process, although this process includes only the section of the population that is involved in regular competition at school or in recreational leagues.
“Since 1994, the talent identification process has moved on a broader basis. With increasingly strong competition, major clubs have been more proactive in their approach, using the new FA regulations as an opportunity to attract and develop boys from ages 9-16 years.” (Burns, 1996, p.9)
The Bosman ruling has encouraged clubs to develop in-house talent and try to instill a sense of loyalty in a player. No doubt, the club will look toward securing a long contract with the player to enable it to make a profit if the player subsequently decides to leave their club.
The current TI system used by professional soccer clubs involves scouts who work for or who are attached to the clubs monitoring competitive matches. The criterion typically used assesses players on their techniques, balance, personality and speed. After specific players have been identified, they are approached and invited to play for one of the club’s youth teams and to attend its “school of excellence.”
Once a player becomes involved in a club, all clubs have differing programs for the development of talent. In general, according to Burns (1996), “Physical conditioning ... balance, flexibility, speed, change of pace, aerobic endurance are all developed, evaluated and monitored” (p.10). In this way, professional clubs hope to develop the talent first identified by scouts.
As mentioned previously, the UK already has a well developed, if somewhat subjective, TI scheme. Williams et al. (1998) suggest an alternative, more objective, TI framework, which is summarized in the above illustration.
Williams et al. (1998) propose a TI framework by highlighting characteristics that are identified in existing literature as being contributory factors to success in association football. The above framework is multi-factorial and interdisciplinary and would involve a comprehensive and time-consuming testing system to operate effectively.
CRITICISM OF THE ABOVE PROPOSED TI SCHEME FOR ASSOCIATION FOOTBALL IN THE UK
Although Williams et al. (1998, 2000) suggest a comprehensive framework for TI in football, they have not reported suitable tests to examine some of the factors they suggest. This is particularly the case in the perceptual-cognitive skills, where universally recognized, valid and reliable tests are not identified in existing literature. Neither is it clear how the tests are to be scored or prioritized.
Williams et al. (1998) also do not indicate if there should be any weighting of the characteristics. Therefore, this raises the question of whether certain characteristics are more important than others and should theoretically take precedent over others. This would be reflected in an order or hierarchy of tests. Williams et al. (1998) unfortunately do not indicate the perceived relative importance of the coached players would score higher.
This would reduce the likelihood of identifying the more talented players through this scheme. If this were to be the case, then the format would be unable to identify talented players who do not already compete in football. If so, this more complex system could be little better than the current, more subjective system. The question of the validity of introducing a more complex, expensive and time-consuming program evidently needs further critical analysis.
One potential option is a scoring system similar to the Multi-Factorial Inter-disciplinary Talent Identification Scheme (MFIDTIS) proposed by Reilly et al. (2000) (discussed below).
A PROPOSED MULTI-DISCIPLINARY TALENT IDENTIFICATION SCHEME FOR SOCCER
In recognition of the need for a multi-disciplinary approach to talent identification, Reilly et al. (2000) proposed a multi-factorial interdisciplinary TI scheme for soccer. The test battery was piloted on 31 boys who were about 16 years old. The testing protocol had 15 anthropometric measurements, eight physiological measurements, three psychological tests and two skill tests.
The anthropometric measurements taken were from 13 different locations on the body. These measurements established percentage body fat and somatotype. The physiological measurements were estimated max VO2; speed over 5m, 15m, 25m and 30m; agility over a 40m sprint; a speed endurance and vertical jump test.
The psychological tests included the Task and Ego Orientation in Sport questionnaire (Duda, 1989), the CSAI-2 (Jones and Swain, 1995) and an anticipation test (Williams and Davids, 1998). Finally, the skill tests were a shooting and slalom test developed by Reilly and Holmes (1983). Statistical analysis of the data from the battery of tests indicated that a combination of four variables successfully discriminated between elite and sub-elite players. These variables were agility, 30m sprint, ego orientation and anticipation. The 30m sprint speed was negatively associated with elite players, making slower sprinters more likely to be elite players than faster sprinters.
CRITICISMS OF THE PROPOSED MULTIDISCIPLINARY TI SCHEME FOR SOCCER
Reilly et al. (2000) do not indicate how they controlled, eliminated or selected the variables for inclusion in the stepwise analysis. In the absence of an explanation or comment regarding the selection process, the possibility that all the variables were entered cannot be discounted. If all the variables were entered into the analysis, the resultantly low power ratio would call into question the results of the study. Entry of all the variables would mean that a total of 30 variables were mapped against 31 players. This would give an approximate power ratio of 1:1.
This would certainly cast doubt on the validity of the results from the study. This lack of validity may be apparent in the study results, suggesting that slower sprinters are more likely to be elite players than faster sprinters. Existing literature suggests that the reverse is in fact the case. Faster players are more likely to be elite players than slower ones (Panfil et al., 1997; Janssens et al., 1998).
CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY TI SYSTEM
Many TI programs are interdisciplinary in nature. They draw mainly from anthropometric data such as weight, height, etc., and physiological data such as sprint speed. It is the author’s opinion that no talent search program can be effective without a series of psychological tests to ensure that a rounded profile of the player is taken into account. Previous research has shown the comparability of elite athlete’s psychological profiles.
“Research so far indicates that elite performers are more alike in terms of psychological profile than they are dissimilar.” (Fisher, 1990)
Physical talent may not be enough to ensure success in the international arena. Research as early as Morgan and Johnson (1978) suggests that a combination of approaches should be used to differentiate athletes. Many psychological tests are available. However, as with the physical and anthropometric tests, the key factors in deciding to include them in a talent identification scheme would be their reliability, validity and ease of testing.
A REVIEW OF TALENT IDENTIFICATION IN SOCCER
Williams et al. (2000) reviewed and integrated the main current research findings concerned with TI and soccer. The review highlights anthropometric factors that may help to predict success in the sport. The authors, however, concur with the statement made by Fisher and Borms (1990):
“Many of the physical qualities that distinguish elite and sub-elite players may not be apparent until late adolescence, confounding the early selection of performers.” (Fisher and Borms, 1990 p.27)
In regard to the physiological factors that affect performance, Williams et al. characteristics identified. In addition, the author questions whether the tests on “game intelligence,” decision-making and anticipation could differentiate between “raw,” uncoached talented players or if less-talented but better (2000) identify a number of different characteristics highlighted in the literature that help discriminate between successful and non-successful athletes. This may be in part because of a more systematic approach to training before their induction into the specialized under-age squad.
The main physiological characteristic identified by Williams et al. (2000) is that of VO2, although they acknowledge that there is a concern in the literature regarding the extent to which this factor tracks from childhood to maturity. Williams also highlights the higher tempo of the modern game and postulates that this will continue to increase in the future with consequences for higher levels of VO2 required from players.
Psychologically, Williams et al. (2000), identify these predictors of success: commitment, self-confidence, less anxiety, the ability to use psychological coping strategies and better concentration. The study also finds that anticipation, decision-making skills and social background are important characteristics of successful players. Typically players from a white, middle-class and nuclear family have a greater chance of success.
The talent identification review conducted by Williams et al. (2000) is comprehensive. It is not, however, a TI scheme; none of the characteristics identified has a corresponding test associated with them. Ethically, one must raise the question of whether it is appropriate to select athletes based upon their social background. In addition, uncertainty remains as to how much weighting should be attributed to social background as criteria for the basis of analysis.
CONCLUSION
The problems created by adopting an interdisciplinary approach to talent identification are significant. Professional clubs must take into account the problems of analyzing and compensating for the differing maturation rates of their young players. It is highly possible that a number of late developers could be disregarded completely, when they may have benefited from a more complete TI process. Hebbelinck (1988) postulates that late maturers may have an advantage over their early maturing contemporaries in that they may work on the skill aspects of their sport in order to compensate for any identified anthropometric or physiological disadvantage.
Several researchers (Salmela, 1996; Woodman, 1994) also suggest that the identification process should be continued for several years because the normal physical and motor development of young people does not necessarily follow a strict chronological pattern and the accuracy of such identification improves with age. Children not initially identified as being talented would need to be encouraged to stay involved in sport so they could be retested regularly. This would go some way to counteracting the problems associated with not identifying late maturers as talented athletes.
Ian Lawrence, Senior Lecturer in Sports Studies, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, York St John University, Lord Mayors Walk, York YO31 7EX, UK
References
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